怪物岛

German exports to China fall over 12% in H1 as industrial upgrading reshapes trade structure; cooperation remains vital: expert_我的网站

一 |     

    Container ships, gantry cranes and container yards are seen at the HHLA Container Terminal Burchardkai and the EUROGATE Container Terminal in Hamburg, Germany, on August 5, 2026. Photo: VCG
German exports to China fell year-on-year in the first half of 2026, pointing to a deeper restructuring of bilateral trade as China moves up the manufacturing value chain, Chinese analysts said. They also cautioned that the decline should not be read as diminishing China's importance to German businesses, given the deep economic ties and the continued benefits of cooperation for both sides.
Germany's first-half exports to China fell by more than 12 percent year-on-year to just under 37 billion euros ($43 billion), while imports from China rose 8.9 percent to 91.8 billion euros, according to data from Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) cited by Reuters on Sunday. Germany's trade deficit with China widened to about 55 billion euros from 40 billion euros a year earlier, the report said.
Reuters cited Corinne Abele, GTAI's East Asia expert, as pointing to weaker domestic demand and the fact that German companies are increasingly producing inside China.
Commerzbank economist Vincent Stamer said that China's diminishing reliance on Germany showed that the country is becoming more independent of Western powers and catching up technologically, according to Reuters.
China has continued to strengthen its capabilities in sectors including new-energy vehicles, artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing, enabling more products and technologies that previously depended on imports to be supplied domestically, Zhao Junjie, a senior research fellow at the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Sunday.
"This means the structure of China-Germany trade is changing," Zhao said, noting that as Chinese industries move up the value chain, China's reliance on some German industrial products is declining, while Chinese companies are becoming more competitive in sectors where German manufacturers traditionally enjoyed strong advantages.
In a position paper released on July 28, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said that the rapid growth of China's modern industries is driven by innovation, with nationwide research and development (R&D) spending growing by an average of 10 percent annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period. 
The changing trade trend is also linked to Germany's own industrial competitiveness and policy environment, Zhao said, noting that high energy costs, demographic pressures and slower investment in some emerging technologies have weighed on the country's industrial upgrading and innovation.
At the same time, political and security considerations have increasingly shaped Germany's economic policy toward China, as Berlin has moved closer to the broader US and EU "de-risking" agenda, Zhao said. 
"Such policies can be a double-edged sword, raising costs for German companies in China and disrupting bilateral economic cooperation while seeking to pressure Chinese industries."
However, it is notable that overall China-Germany trade remained substantial. Total bilateral trade exceeded 128 billion euros in the first half, about 3 billion euros more than Germany's trade with the US, according to Reuters. 
China overtook the US as Germany's top trading partner in 2025 after US President Donald Trump launched sweeping protectionist tariffs that weighed on German exports to the US.
Falling German exports should not be seen as diminishing China's importance to German businesses, especially as bilateral ties are increasingly expanding beyond trade into investment, local production and R&D, analysts said.
German companies invested more than 7 billion euros in China in the first 11 months of 2025, up 55.5 percent from 4.5 billion euros in 2024 and 2023 and hitting a four-year high. German companies are bulking up their China business and adopting "China for China" production strategies partly to reduce exposure to possible tariffs and export restrictions, according to Reuters. 
Major German companies are also deepening their presence in China. BASF's Verbund site in Zhanjiang, South China's Guangdong Province went fully operational in March with an investment of 8.7 billion euros, the largest single investment project wholly owned by a German enterprise in China, the Xinhua News Agency reported.
"China and Germany have developed deeply intertwined economic interests over many years," Zhao said. Rather than treating stronger Chinese industries as a reason to reduce cooperation, Germany should adapt to a relationship in which competition increasingly coexists with investment, innovation and industrial collaboration, he noted.
Recent high-level exchanges have also underscored the importance both sides attach to economic ties. During a meeting with German Economy Minister Katherina Reiche in May, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said that China and Germany are important economic and trade partners with a solid foundation, enormous potential and strong complementarity, calling on both sides to consolidate cooperation in traditional sectors and tap opportunities in emerging fields, according to the Xinhua News Agency.
Reiche said that the German business community remained confident about China's economic prospects and innovation capabilities and would continue to deepen cooperation, Xinhua reported.
The two sides have also moved to strengthen institutional mechanisms. China and Germany agreed to restart the China-Germany Joint Economic Committee and establish two new working groups on trade and investment and industrial cooperation, according to the MOFCOM.
。    当前，百年变局加速演变，国际形势变乱交织。在充满不确定性的环境下，国际油价风险对国内实体经济和金融体系构成严重的外溢冲击，风险防范形势日趋严峻。立足全球不确定性背景，解析国际油价冲击对中国股市的影响机制，已成为保障能源安全与维护金融稳定的紧迫现实课题。　　中国矿业大学丁志华教授、刘振华副教授团队所著《不确定性视角下国际油价对中国股市的影响研究》一书，聚焦石油金融前沿问题，从不确定性新视角系统揭示国际油价对中国股市的影响机制，为政府和监管部门识别国际油价风险传导路径、完善风险治理提供了重要参考。　　纵观全书，其特色与创新主要体现在以下三个方面：　　一是理论视角新颖。该书创新性提出了经济政策不确定性在原油和股市联动关系中兼具内在渠道和外生冲击双重属性理论，区分了经济政策不确定性的内外部来源，揭示了内外部经济政策不确定性在油价冲击影响股市关系中的差异化作用机理，拓展了原油与股市联动关系的理论视角。　　二是研究内容丰富。该书从整体市场和行业股市两个维度出发，不仅识别了不同经济政策不确定性水平下原油与股市信息溢出的关键路径、关键行业、关联结构及动态演变，还考察了不确定性条件下油价信息对股市波动的预测能力，丰富了原油与股市影响关系的研究内容。

二 | 　　三是研究方法前沿。该书综合运用计量经济学、管理科学、网络拓扑理论等多学科理论，提出了包含马尔科夫区制转移过程的混频数据模型，能够识别不同市场状态下政策不确定性的异质性影响，丰富了政策评估和风险管理研究的方法工具。　　全书结构合理、思路清晰、数据翔实、论证严密，提出了新理论，发展了新方法，取得了新成果，是能源金融交叉领域的一项高质量研究成果。该书的出版，不仅丰富完善了石油金融风险管理的理论体系，也为中国防范国际油价冲击风险、保障能源安全提供了有力的决策参考。（作者 周德群 系南京航空航天大学二级教授）。

三 |

Current article:http://sulu.recuigoutoubaozukai.pics/list_24i/d6e2dg.html

Published on:00:00:00